UAE surprises OPEC and OPEC+ and end 6-decade membership
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, its official decision to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the "OPEC+" alliance, with the decision to come into effect on Friday, May 1, 2026, in a surprise move that ended membership that extended for about 60 years since the country joined the organization in 1967.
The decision is in line with the UAE's long-term economic vision, and reflects the development of its energy sector, especially the acceleration of investment in local energy production, which enhances its ability to respond to changing market requirements and gradually increase oil production, in line with global demand conditions, in addition to flexibility and independence in formulating production policies away from quota restrictions imposed by the organization.
The future of the UAE's oil
By leaving the alliance, the UAE will be free to set its own production policies independently, with the possibility of increasing its production, which currently exceeds 5 million barrels per day, which it has been demanding for years due to the incompatibility of OPEC's previous quotas with its actual capabilities.
Experts expect this shift to support the UAE's Vision 2026 by increasing investments in the energy sector and boosting GDP, giving it greater flexibility in dealing with global market volatility
WAM: Abu Dhabi is committed to supporting the stability of global markets
The Emirates News Agency (WAM), which published the news of the withdrawal, stressed that this decision does not change the country's approach as a responsible and reliable producer, stressing its continued commitment to supporting the stability of global energy markets, despite its exit from the OPEC and OPEC+ frameworks.
The decision sparked immediate and widespread reactions in global energy markets and among member countries, given the weight of the UAE as one of the largest oil producers in the world, as the markets witnessed immediate volatility following the announcement, as oil prices rose by 2% driven by uncertainty and fears of short-term supply shortages, especially in light of regional tensions.
Goldman Sachs analysts have predicted that the average price of Brent crude will reach $85 per barrel in 2026 as a result of potential supply shocks, while JPMorgan expects the price to later fall to around $60 per barrel as supply increases and the market stabilizes, and other estimates suggest that prices could peak at $91 per barrel in the second quarter of the year, before falling by the end of the year.
Responses of States and the Coalition
The UAE's withdrawal is seen as a "major blow" to the cohesion of the OPEC+ alliance, as it weakens its ability to control prices through a collective quota system.
There was no official comment from Saudi Arabia or any member state of the two organisations , but media reports said the coalition was seeking to maintain a stable production policy despite escalating political tensions in the region.
The decision came at a sensitive time when the region is on high alert, with energy supplies affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts, adding to the pressure on the global oil market.
What are "OPEC" and "OPEC+"?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) are international and regional frameworks that reflect a common interest in oil, but differ in the nature of membership and objectives.
OPEC was founded in Baghdad in 1960 at the initiative of 5 countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela, and is based in Vienna, to be a global organization that includes countries from different continents, and its main goal is to coordinate petroleum policies among members to ensure the stability of global markets and secure a fair return for producers and stable supplies for consumers. It currently includes 12 countries.
OAPEC is a regional organization established in 1968 under an agreement between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Libya, and is based in Kuwait City, and its membership is limited to Arab oil-producing countries, and its objectives are to promote Arab cooperation in various aspects of economic activity related to the petroleum industry, and to establish joint projects among members, and today includes ten Arab countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Algeria, Iraq and Syria.