Only 10% of Europeans trust U.S. security guarantees as a traditional ally

A poll published by the European Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday (June 10th) showed that Europeans' confidence in US "security guarantees" has fallen to historic lows.

Only one in 10 people across the 15 European countries surveyed now see the United States as an "ally," while the vast majority question Washington's ability or willingness to intervene to protect them in the event of a direct military attack.

A sharp shift in the European mood

The poll, which monitored sharp shifts in the overall European mood compared to previous years, revealed that the overall percentage of the United States' rating as an ally fell to an average of just 11%, compared to 16% six months ago and 22% in October 2024.

  Instead, the most common perception has become that Washington is a "necessary partner," with 13% of respondents rating it as a "competitor" and 12% as a "direct adversary."

Motivated by deep European skepticism

The pollsters attributed  this record decline and distrust to US President Donald Trump's aggressive policies in the Middle East, his past threats on Greenland, his repeated pledges to withdraw US troops from European bases, as well as his continued skepticism about the future of NATO, factors that have pushed European public opinion towards what has been described as "growing pragmatism" and the search for alternative security hedging options.

The senior politician at the European Council and co-author of the survey, Yana Kubzova, confirmed to the British newspaper "The Guardian" that there is clear support across the continent for reducing military dependence on Washington.

 Kobzova noted that Europeans are becoming more open to increasing national defense spending, while at the same time showing a striking degree of confidence that neighboring European countries will stand in solidarity and come to their mutual aid in times of crisis.

Funding Plans and Reducing Military Credit

In the details of the survey, 47% of respondents supported the idea of co-borrowing within the EU to finance defense budgets.

Portugal recorded the highest levels of support at 59%, followed by Denmark and the Netherlands, and the results showed a clear tendency among the majority of respondents to reduce dependence on US military equipment.

Denmark topped the list with 75 percent, followed by the Netherlands (72 percent), Sweden (70 percent), France (66 percent), and the United Kingdom and Spain with 62 percent each.

Europeans have expressed some strong reservations about funding this defense shift if it comes at the expense of cuts in domestic public spending such as health and education, with opposition remaining high in Italy, Austria, Germany and Spain.

On the other hand, the poll showed a sharp division on Ukraine's accession file to the European Union, with countries such as Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany, and even Estonia tending to oppose joining in the current context.