Global oil prices continued their rapid rise for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, July 15, driven by the escalation of the direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran, and growing international concerns about the safety and flow of energy supplies through the vital sea lanes in the Persian Gulf.
Spot trading recorded a significant increase, with Brent crude rising by nearly 0.7% to reach $85.31 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose by about 0.4% to settle at $79.69 per barrel, continuing to record their highest levels in a full month.
Naval blockade closes Strait of Hormuz
The economic flare-up followed the U.S. military's announcement of a new series of airstrikes against targets linked to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
This coincided with US President Donald Trump's announcement of the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, hinting that Iran's energy and oil facilities could become a direct military target at a later stage.
On the other hand, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international traffic again, and the Iranian army carried out drone attacks targeting US sites at the Azraq base in Jordan at dawn on Wednesday, in conjunction with reports from Gulf countries that they were subjected to attacks on their territories and field interests.
Goldman Sachs: Decline in exports, supply uncertainty
A recent report by the global investment bank Goldman Sachs painted a bleak picture for the future of oil supply, with the bank stressing that the next phase of export recovery has become more volatile and uncertain. The most prominent of the Bank's report included the following indicators:
Sharp decline in flows: Gulf oil exports have fallen by more than 50% compared to pre-war levels, reaching only about 11 million barrels per day, after recovering about 80% of their recovery following the memorandum of understanding signed between Washington and Tehran last June.
Impact of the U.S. embargo: The bank expects the new U.S. blockade on Iranian ports to directly wipe off between 1.5 and 2 million barrels per day of Iranian exports.
Doubling losses: The report estimated the net loss in total Gulf oil flows at 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past week alone, hampering the ability of other producers to fill the gap caused by supply disruptions.
Two scenarios for markets until the end of the year
Market analysts have developed two possible scenarios for oil prices depending on the course of political and military events, as the first scenario predicts the continuation of military unrest and the targeting of tankers, which may push Brent crude prices to exceed the threshold of $110 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026, with the basic forecast remaining at $80 for the fourth quarter and $75 during 2027 in the event of relative stability.
The second scenario assumes the success of international diplomatic efforts in de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping, which will gradually bring prices down to a range of $75 to $80 per barrel, with the possibility of a sharp decline towards $60 per barrel by the end of this year, driven by the acceleration of the recovery in global production.