European data and human rights reports revealed a significant increase in the number of decisions to reject asylum applications submitted by Syrians during 2025, in light of a comprehensive reassessment of the situation in Syria after recent political developments, which included the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the assumption of a new administration in power in the country.
According to the European Union Asylum Agency, the number of rejected asylum applications reached 27,687 out of 38,407 applications, with a rejection rate of nearly 72%, while a significant decrease in acceptance rates dropped to only 28%, compared to about 90% in 2024.
The reasons for rejection are not always related to the security situation, but also include procedural factors, such as previous applications in other European countries, non-completion of the required documents, or withdrawal of applicants' applications, but the most prominent decline was in decisions related to Syrian applications.
The data recorded a general decline in asylum acceptance rates in the European Union, Norway and Switzerland to 29% in 2025, compared to 42% in the previous year, reflecting a broad change in the approach to migration within Europe.
The report pointed out that the fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024 reshaped the European view of Syrian refugees, as several countries began to consider that "circumstances have changed", and that some areas no longer witness the previous levels of violence, which prompted the reopening of return or refusal files.
However, the EU directive, issued in December 2025, still emphasizes that some groups may be at risk, stressing the need to assess each case individually.
Decline in legal protection
Data from the European Asylum Office indicate that the rates of protection granted to Syrians vary greatly according to countries and categories: for example, in Germany it is about 13%, and in France the general acceptance rate for Syrians is about 85%, according to the Office for the Protection of Refugees (OFPRA), which reflects a clear difference in policies between European countries.
Academics say the shift in asylum policy is not only related to the changing situation in Syria, but also to internal European political considerations, and Nando Seguna, a professor of international migration at the University of Birmingham, said that some governments are "treating the changes in Syria as an indicator of an automatic improvement in the situation, despite the lack of clear evidence of this, especially for minorities."
He added that this trend reflects a "broader tendency within Europe towards more draconian immigration policies and a tendency to reduce humanitarian protection".
Domestic political pressures mount
Since the 2015 migration crisis, during which more than a million refugees arrived in Europe, domestic political pressures have escalated, leading to the rise of right-wing parties calling for fewer asylum seekers and faster deportations.
In the Netherlands, MP Ulysses Elian said that "the return of some Syrians is now possible", saying this was necessary to ease the pressure on the asylum system.
Human rights groups warn that the widespread rejection of asylum applications could put thousands of Syrians in an unstable legal and humanitarian situation, especially those who have been settled in Europe for many years.
Experts say the risks in Syria have not completely disappeared, as multiple regions remain under security tensions, making decisions to return or refuse widely debated.
Between the hardening of European policies and the divergent assessment of the situation in Syria, thousands of Syrian refugees find themselves facing an uncertain future, caught between rejecting asylum applications and fears of returning to a country that still suffers from security and political fragility, despite the official declaration of the end of the war.