Economic Power Map 2026: Saudi Arabia First in the Arab Sphere and Turkey First in the Islamic  Sphere

 In its comprehensive annual World Economic Outlook report released in April 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlined a new economic map based on countries' nominal GDP.

This map reveals fundamental shifts in the balance of power, influenced by critical variables such as exchange rates, energy security, the resilience of the tourism and industrial sectors, and the ability of countries to transform growth rates into tangible economic weights in the international market.

The IMF based its estimates on data available until early April 2026, with a reference hypothesis indicating a gradual easing of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, despite the persistence of high levels of risk that may affect supply chains.

Saudi Arabia in the Arab lead

Saudi Arabia is the top of the Arab economies by a wide margin over its closest competitors, with the IMF predicting that its nominal GDP will rise to $1.39 trillion by the end of 2026, leaving the Kingdom the only Arab economy that has succeeded in breaking the "trillion dollar barrier" and entering the club of adults globally.

In terms of macro indicators, the report predicted real growth of the Saudi economy by 3.1% in 2026, with expectations that it will improve to reach 4.5% in 2027.

The IMF also noted that inflation rates stabilized at 2.3%, with a slight current account deficit of 1.6% of GDP.

Ranking of Arab Economic Powers

 UAE: Came in second with a projected nominal output of approximately $622 billion, with strong growth prospects of 5.3% in 2027 and a huge current account surplus of 11.4%.

 Egypt: Ranked third with an output of close to $430 billion, with inflation expected to decline to 13.2% in 2026 and a gradual improvement in real growth rates to reach 4.8% in 2027.

 Algeria: Rabaa came in fourth with an expected output of about $317 billion, supported by stable growth of 3.8%.

 Iraq: Ranked fifth with an output of nearly $265 billion, and although a temporary contraction of 6.8% is expected in 2026, a massive growth jump of 11.3% is expected in 2027.

 Qatar: Sixth with an output of $217 billion, with a strong return to growth expected in 2027 of 8.6% after a repositioning phase this year.

 Morocco: Came in seventh with an output of nearly $194 billion, maintaining a stable growth pace of 4.9%, while controlling inflation at low levels of 1.3%.

 Kuwait: Eighth with an expected output of about $173 billion, with the highest current account surplus recorded among its peers at 26%.

  Oman: Ranked ninth with an output of nearly $117 billion, with projected growth of 3.5% and a comfortable current account surplus.

 Jordan: Concludes the Big Ten list with an output of nearly $65 billion and stable growth of 2.7%.

Turkey tops Islamic countries

At the level of Islamic countries, Turkey topped the list in terms of nominal GDP, and estimates indicated that Turkey's nominal GDP will reach $1.64 trillion in 2026, ahead of Indonesia, whose economy is expected to reach about $1.54 trillion.

The IMF report projected real growth for Turkey at 3.4% in 2026, compared to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2027. The report also predicted that inflation will reach 28.6% in 2026, and that the current account will record a deficit of 2.8% of GDP, with unemployment at 8.3%.

The monetary policy assumptions in the report indicated that Turkey's monetary position will remain deflationary, in line with the announced and implemented policies.

Recent IMF data showed that Turkey's nominal GDP is expected to rise to $1.64 trillion, making it the first Muslim majority country in terms of economic size.

According to  Anadolu Agency, the data map for the "World Economic Outlook" report, published by the International Monetary Fund in April 2026, included updated forecasts on the nominal GDP of countries.

Turkey's GDP this year is expected to rise to $1.64 trillion,  drawing attention to Turkey's top list of Muslim-majority countries in terms of economic size.

On the other hand, Indonesia's GDP, which has long maintained its lead in this field, is expected to reach about $1.54 trillion this year, losing its position in favor of Turkey, according to IMF estimates, in 2025.

The data also predicted that Saudi Arabia's GDP, which comes after Turkey and Indonesia in the ranking of the economies of Muslim-majority countries, will reach $1.39 trillion in 2026.

The countries in this group, which have economies of more than $1 trillion, were limited to Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

The IMF's updated forecast did not include an estimate of Pakistan's GDP for 2026, but it is expected to have recorded an economic volume of $408 billion over the past year.

According to Anadolu  Agency, analysts pointed out that the expected jump in Turkey's GDP is mainly due to the expansion of the manufacturing sector, the recovery in the tourism sector, and the increase in exports, along with the effects of the dollar exchange rate.

  The  combination of these factors enabled Turkey to surpass the rest of the Muslim-majority countries in terms of nominal GDP, and that Indonesia, despite its demographic advantage and richness in natural resources, has been affected by the slowdown in some sectors and fluctuations in global commodity prices.

They also stressed that other major economies within this group are more dependent on the export of raw materials and energy, while Turkey's diversified economic structure, based on industry and services, makes the pace of growth more sustainable.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had forecast Turkey's economy to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026, but the IMF again in April lowered its forecast for Turkey's real growth to 3.4 percent, noting that rising oil and natural gas prices will negatively impact economic activity.