Changes in the global energy map. U.S. oil fills the Gulf vacuum

The fallout from the "war on Iran" has revealed unprecedented  shifts in global energy markets, as the United States is on the verge of achieving a historic milestone of becoming a net exporter of crude oil, a situation not seen since World War II.

The gains are driven by rising demand from Europe and Asia, which are scrambling to make up for the Middle East's supply shortages and seek safe alternatives away from flaming conflict zones.

Remap Flows

The current developments, according to data monitored by the specialized "Energy" platform, reflect a radical reformulation of the map of global oil flows.

These shifts come amid severe disruptions to supply chains as a result of geopolitical tensions, particularly after threats to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade passes.

The war has caused the biggest shock to the energy market in decades, as security risks in the Persian Gulf have disrupted much of supply, prompting global refineries in Europe and Asia to a "mass flight" toward U.S. oil, which has emerged as the most ready and stable option for urgent needs.

Records and Historic Figures

U.S. government data showed that net crude oil imports — the difference between what the country imports and exports — fell to about 66,000 barrels per day (bpd) just last week, the lowest level in history since weekly data began in 2001.

In contrast, US exports jumped to about 5.2 million barrels per day, their highest level in 7 months.

This scene is reminiscent of the situation of the United States in 1943, the last time the country was registered as a "net exporter" on an annual basis, giving the current shift an exceptional historical character.

Expanding Buyer Base

According to data analytics firm Kpler, Europe accounted for about 47 percent of U.S. exports (2.4 million barrels per day), while 37 percent went to Asia, compared to just 30 percent a year ago.

And it's not just traditional customers, as new countries have entered the import arena, with Greece buying U.S. crude for the first time, while Turkey is preparing to receive its first shipment in a year. Countries such as the Netherlands, France, Germany, Japan, and South Korea have joined the list of top buyers, in a clear sign of the redistribution of power in the energy market.

Price Gap and Infrastructure Challenges

The "price gap" between Brent and WTI has played a pivotal role in boosting the competitiveness of U.S. oil, as the rise in the premium of U.S. Brent crude has made it an attractive economic option for global refiners.

Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad, explains that buyers in the Atlantic and Asia basin are moving further afield for supplies, taking advantage of price differentials that cover high shipping costs.

Despite this momentum, analysts say the U.S. is approaching its "export capacity cap" due to infrastructure constraints and pipeline capacity. Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, noted that the market is currently testing the limits of export capacity, stressing that any further increase will face logistical challenges and high transportation costs.

Strategic gains

Experts believe that this crisis goes beyond just trade figures, revealing strategic gains for Washington from the repercussions of the war.

Dr. Anas Al-Hajji, Editorial Advisor of the Energy Platform and an expert in energy economics, stressed that this crisis is the largest since World War II, explaining that it is not limited to oil, but extends to vital sectors such as fertilizers and petrochemicals.

 The  Strait of Hormuz crisis is "a test of the global economy's ability to adapt to multiple shocks," he said, adding that what is happening is part of a broader geopolitical conflict that uses energy as a tool to reshape the new world order.