After the failure of the Washington-Tehran agreement. Fears of a jump in oil prices

The failure of the U.S.-Iran talks in the Pakistani capital Islamabad has reinforced uncertainty in global energy markets, amid growing fears of long-term supply disruptions and a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, coinciding with continued disruption to navigation in the Gulf and US President Donald Trump's announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting today.

Sharp volatility of crude prices

Developments in the Strait of Hormuz have had a rapid impact on global energy markets, with the price of a barrel of oil exceeding $100 following the announcement of the naval blockade, as Asian buyers prepare for an additional shortage of gas supplies after the stalemate in the Islamabad negotiations, and the average shipments to China fell significantly over the past month.

This coincidence between the naval blockade and the stalemate of the negotiation track and the decline in navigation indicate that the confrontation has moved to a stage of direct economic and maritime pressure  , at a time when Washington seeks to prevent Tehran from imposing a new reality in the Strait of Hormuz or achieving economic gains from controlling the movement of ships.

 The outcome of the stalled negotiations has put markets on high alert, with oil prices fluctuating over the past week.

Chaotic recovery and slow flows

In an analysis of the current situation, Societe Generale predicted a state of "chaotic non-compliance" and low-level retaliatory responses rather than an all-out escalation, implying a very slow return to oil and LNG flows.

In a bid to calm markets, Saudi Arabia announced the resumption of operation of the East-West pipeline after previous attacks that led to the loss of 700,000 barrels per day, as work continues to restore the Khurais field's facilities.

Living crisis and inflationary pressures

Rising energy costs have sparked fears of governments and central banks of long-term inflation, which could force policymakers to reassess plans to cut interest rates.

Economic pressures have begun to translate into popular protests in some European capitals, such as Dublin, over the sharp rise in the cost of living linked to fuel prices.

Behind the scenes of the collapse of the 21-hour negotiations

On the ground and politically, the marathon 21-hour talks ended with mutual blame, with US Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Tehran of thwarting the deal, while Iranian sources considered that Washington had made "excessive" demands.

These developments come after the outbreak of the war on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, and the continuation of the military escalation in Lebanon, which has left hundreds of civilian victims.

Energy file on the IMF table

The energy turmoil is expected to dominate the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where experts will present bleak scenarios involving weaker economic growth and higher inflation, with warnings that fragile economies will be hit harder by the protracted crisis.