After leaving OPEC. UAE announces new approach to oil market

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said his country owes its investment partners to produce what global oil markets need without restrictions and at the same time cooperate with other crude oil producers, following the country's exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Speaking at the annual 'Make in the UAE' conference in Dubai, Al Mazrouei said , "Our partners investing in the UAE are able to produce what the world needs without restrictions, in cooperation with all other producers."

Al Mazrouei and Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), confirmed that the UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+ with good relations, expressing his confidence in continued cooperation with many countries, "including members of OPEC and OPEC+... We came out with good relations."

Asked if OPEC and Saudi Arabia had not publicly reacted to the decision, Al Mazrouei said OPEC's reaction to the decision to withdraw had been calm, adding, "Everyone understands that it is a sovereign decision, and they understand that the UAE will be a responsible producer."

Saudi Arabia responds by increasing production

At the first meeting of the "OPEC+" alliance, on Sunday, May 3, 2026, after the UAE's withdrawal, Saudi Arabia led a decision to increase production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for the month of June, which carried a clear political connotation, despite the limited limitation of the increase, represented in emphasizing the organization's ability to make collective decisions, and that the absence of the UAE does not paralyze the mechanism of work.

The UAE, one of OPEC's largest oil producers, withdrew from the organization on May 1, widening a rift with Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

After the UAE and Saudi Arabia forged strong alliance relations, they developed an escalating rivalry, disagreeing on issues including oil policy and geopolitical issues in the region, as the two countries race for foreign talent and capital.

 The London-based  Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper  described the decision to increase production as an attempt to show that OPEC+ remains cohesive, and that Saudi Arabia is able to lead the internal balances despite the loss of one of the most important Gulf members, noting that Riyadh has avoided any offensive or critical rhetoric, preferring to keep "all doors open" to the UAE, reflecting a Saudi desire to prevent the dispute from turning into a broader political or economic crisis.

ADNOC: Exit from OPEC and OPEC+ is not directed against anyone

Energy analysts widely believe that the UAE's move will weaken OPEC's influence over oil markets, which could spark a race to increase production and lead to a sharp drop in crude prices.

"We will evaluate our participation based on market demands, as well as our production needs for our local industries," Al Mazrouei said.

Al-Jaber said that the move to exit OPEC serves the UAE's national interests and long-term strategic goals and gives it a greater ability to accelerate the pace of investment and "expand and create value," adding that "the UAE will remain a reliable and responsible partner in global energy markets, and will continue to support its stability from a more flexible position."

In a speech at the conference, Al Jaber added, "The UAE's sovereign decision to reposition itself in the global energy system and exit OPEC+ is not directed against anyone, this is a strategic and deliberate decision that reflects our capabilities and confidence in our ability to build a more diversified economy and our ambition for a better future."

Moscow: Stabilizing the alliance and preventing the "contagion of withdrawal"

Russia refrained from directly commenting on the motives behind the Emirati withdrawal, and was quick to affirm its full commitment to the alliance, as Moscow agreed to the recent production quota adjustments in coordination with Saudi Arabia, in a clear message that OPEC+ is still a necessary framework for regulating the global market.

Russian state television said Moscow had treated the Emirati withdrawal as a potential threat to the alliance's cohesion, so it focused on showing unity with Riyadh to prevent any "withdrawal contagion" that might encourage other members to demand greater production flexibility or renegotiate their quotas.