The fourth edition of the Global Climate Change Indicators, published on Thursday (June 11th) in the scientific journal Earth System Science Data, confirmed that the rate of warming caused by human activity continues to rise at an all-time high.

The analysis, prepared by more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions in 17 countries, warned that the world is approaching the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold set in the Paris Agreement, where anthropogenic warming will reach 1.37 degrees Celsius by 2025, amid expectations that the 1.5 degree limit will be exceeded in 2030 if emissions continue at their current levels.

Standard carbon budget drain

The scientists revealed that the remaining global carbon budget to keep warming below the 1.5°C threshold does not exceed 130 billion tonnes from early 2026, which means it will be completely depleted in just three years.

The warning came after global greenhouse gas emissions hit record levels of 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, raising the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 425.6 parts per million.

The international report concluded that the energy imbalance on the planet has multiplied more than once in recent decades to reach unprecedented levels.

Dr. Karina von Schuchmann from the Mercator Ocean International Institute in France explained that this imbalance is driving drastic changes in all components of the climate system, including warming oceans and land, melting permafrost and the loss of ice masses, with global sea levels recording a record rise of 23 centimeters since 1901 and the global marine heatwave days more than tripling between 1991 and 2025.

Threat to environmental systems and databases

Experts warned of an additional hidden risk that global databases used to monitor climate could be directly threatened.

The warning follows decisions to cut international funding, most notably the US President Donald Trump's administration decision last year to cancel the US State Department's global air quality monitoring program, creating serious gaps in the evidence base on which climate science and related policies are based at a time when urgent action is needed to avoid grim scenarios.

The Paris Climate Agreement, signed in 2015 by some 196 countries, represents the most prominent international legal instrument that sets a collective goal that binds the global warming budget to a ceiling of 2 degrees Celsius and pursues efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avoid the point of environmental deterioration.