The United Nations has issued stern warnings that the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has gone beyond a transient health crisis to become a strategic threat that threatens widespread economic and social repercussions on the African continent.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), as the main source of the assessment report, explained that the deadly pandemic could cost African economies up to $3.6 billion in financial losses if its regional and global impacts worsen, threatening to reduce the desired economic growth rates and expand poverty in an unprecedented manner, putting governments in front of significant challenges.

Catastrophic repercussions on poverty and jobs

The detailed UN report indicated that this complex pandemic crisis could push an additional 985,000 people into extreme poverty, with tens of thousands of job losses recorded, and severe disruption in vital and pivotal sectors such as formal education services and health care institutions.

The same sources and statistical data warned that this poverty shock will have a multiplier and disproportionate negative impact on women, with severe repercussions mainly affecting the Democratic Republic of the Congo and its immediate regional neighbours, in particular Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan, countries that are facing double challenges due to strict containment measures and travel and trade restrictions that impede informal livelihoods.

Official figures and heavy losses

The medical records of the World Health Organization, as an official documenting body, have so far recorded an alarming toll in the Congolese territory, amounting to 1333 confirmed cases of the deadly virus and 399 deaths, while only 189 people have recovered, leaving the Ituri province affected by the protracted armed conflict in the northeast of the country to remain the main epicenter of the epidemic.

In this analytical context, Ahuna Eziakonua, UNDP Regional Director for Africa, stressed that the impact of Ebola never stops at the hospital gate, but extends deeply, destroying livelihoods, food security and public finances, strongly warning that treating the epidemic as a purely medical crisis effectively means ignoring the parallel development emergency.

Economists in the UN study predicted that even in the best-case scenario where the spread of the virus is contained within the borders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Uganda, which has recorded 20 infections, the damage will remain severe and painful.

According to documented figures, real GDP losses in Congo alone will exceed the $1 billion threshold with the loss of about 55,000 vital jobs, while disruptions to trade chains, transport delays and declining consumer confidence could reduce the African continent's GDP by about $2.37 billion, a bleeding that could be coupled with the risk of losing up to 328,000 jobs across the continent as a result of market turmoil.

UNDP has launched a multi-level strategic action plan to urgently address these complex repercussions, calling on governments and donors to adopt flexible economic and social policies that reduce the severity of the development shock.

The core recommendations included the provision of direct and rapid cash transfers to the most vulnerable communities to support domestic consumption, the replacement of comprehensive border closure policies with targeted medical check-ups to facilitate trade, as well as the establishment of emergency and sustainable financing mechanisms to ensure the continuity of basic health care services such as maternal reproductive health and infant care, in a serious effort to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and save fragile communities from total collapse.