The Russia-Ukraine war is entering a complex phase of a long "war of attrition" and tactical stalemate, with the front line stretching for nearly 1,000 kilometers.

With large-scale ground attacks failing to achieve decisive penetrations for both sides due to the density of minefields, engineering fortifications, and the superiority of the air force and drones, Ukraine has shifted the weight of its operations towards a "long-range targeting campaign" to strike refineries and fuel depots deep inside Russia.

The strategy is aimed at crippling the Kremlin's financing capacity (which relies more than 30 percent of its budget on oil and gas revenues) and pushing Moscow to reduce active frontlines by drying up fuel supplies for heavy military equipment.

Tactical stalemate and reduction of axes

The commander of Ukraine's army, Oleksandr Syrsky, painted a bleak picture on the ground of the current tactical stalemate on the battlefields, stressing that achieving any fundamental strategic shift in the war is still out of reach for both sides, despite the marked decline in the pace of Russian forces' advance during the first half of 2026.

Syrsky explained via the Telegram application that the Russian military machine has failed to translate its numerical and material superiority into decisive targets, as Moscow (which has twice the size of Ukrainian forces and equipment) has been forced to reduce the scope of its active offensive operations from 13 axes to a maximum of 6 or 7 axes, as a result of suffering heavy losses due to Kyiv's "strategy of exhausting the enemy."

Energy paralysis and billions of dollars in losses

Syrsky praised the effectiveness of the long-range strike campaign, revealing that Ukrainian forces have targeted 697 positions deep inside Russia since the beginning of this year.

He stressed that these operations have caused direct and indirect losses to the Russian economy estimated at $6.1 billion, and caused severe shortages of fuel supplies in several regions of Russia and in Crimea.

On the ground, Russia announced that it had foiled a "terrorist attack" through the Federal Security Service (FSB) that targeted an air base in Rostov, while a fire broke out at the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar following an attack by Ukrainian drones, and the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that 376 Ukrainian drones were shot down last night over the territory of several provinces and the waters of the Sea of Azov.

Warnings and escalation of civilian casualties

In contrast to this defensive optimism, Syrsky warned against underestimating the capabilities of the adversary, noting that Moscow is continuing its operations in eastern Ukraine through a dangerous escalation with missile strikes and guided aerial bombs.

This coincided with a briefing by UN Political Affairs Officer Rosemary DiCarlo to the Security Council, in which she confirmed that last June witnessed the highest civilian death toll since the early stages of the invasion, with 265 civilians killed and 1,816 injured.

According to data from the UN Human Rights Office, 16,402 civilians (including 802 children) have been documented dead and 48,428 injured (including 2,948 children) since the beginning of the conflict, with the actual numbers much higher.

Patriot deal with Trump

On the diplomatic and arms front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced, following the conclusion of the NATO summit in Ankara, that his country had reached a preliminary political agreement with US President Donald Trump that allows Ukraine to obtain licenses and produce Patriot interceptor missiles domestically to counter Russian ballistic missiles.

Zelensky pointed out that the work of the technical teams immediately began to obtain licenses, with the expectation of the arrival of major supplies of these missiles in the coming days, especially after the recent missile attack on Kyiv on 6-7-2026, which resulted in the death of 15 people.

Russia's categorical refusal to negotiate

On the other hand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced from the Mozambican capital Maputo that Moscow categorically rejects any negotiation efforts led by the Western parties.

Lavrov was quoted by Russia's TASS news agency as saying that Russia's trust in a genuine Western desire to reach agreements has been "completely exhausted", describing Western calls as "hypocrisy" given their deliberate undermining of the guarantees of 2014, 2015 and 2019, and their public failure of the agreement reached between Moscow and Kyiv in 2022.