The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) intensified its airstrikes and drones on the city of Al-Obeid, targeting civilian infrastructure, electricity facilities, and fuel depots, as well as vital highways leading out of the city.

Reuters reported that these attacks coincide with the deployment of massive and intensive military reinforcements of the Rapid Support Forces around the city, recalling the tragic scenes that preceded the attack on the city of El Fasher in North Darfur at the end of last year, which UN experts described as "genocide."

The UN Security Council expressed grave concern over these moves, warning of imminent "mass atrocities" against civilians.

A government source said the Sudanese army had tried to slow the advance of the attacking forces and destroy their equipment, while a source close to the RSF accused the army of using civilians as "human shields."

Although the demographic composition of El Abyad differs from El Fasher's with ethnic violence, there are growing fears that civilians will be subjected to looting and widespread sexual violence.

Tragic humanitarian crisis in the camps

On the ground, the destruction of water plants and the disruption of supply routes has caused a suffocating crisis of thirst and hunger, with residents becoming completely dependent on wells, commercial transport trucks and limited distribution points.

According to field reports, in al-Rahmaniyah camp on the outskirts of the city, about 200 families are crammed into flimsy shelters made of torn straw and fabrics.

Mohammed, a 35-year-old mother of seven, told AFP the extent of the suffering: "We walk long distances and carry water over our heads, which is already undrinkable. We don't have any aid, we need water and food."

Wasila Mohammed, 70, confirms from inside her tent: "We don't have anything. No water, no food, no mattresses," he said, at a time when humanitarian relief supplies have completely disappeared as a result of the blockade.

Warnings of an imminent all-out blockade

Mohamed Rifaat of the United Nations' International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned that El Obeid is approaching a state of "total siege", stressing that international aid organisations have already suspended their activities due to the deteriorating security situation.

In the absence of immediate assistance, the situation could match what El Fasher witnessed in a matter of weeks, as civilians were forced to rely on animal feed to survive, Rifaat said

The current military buildup around the city of El Obeid (the capital of North Kordofan state) represents a strategic turning point in the course of the Sudanese war; the city is not just an administrative center, but the most important logistical node linking western Sudan to its center and east. The RSF's control of the DRF means in effect the complete isolation of the Darfur and Kordofan regions from the rest of the country and the security of connected supply lines that stretch from the western border to the outskirts of the capital, Khartoum, giving it enormous ground advantage in any future political negotiations.

The Importance of White

The city of El Obeid is of great geopolitical and economic importance, as it has a population of half a million people, and currently houses about 100,000 displaced people who fled violence in neighboring areas, and the city is located on a vital strategic road that connects the Darfur region, which is under the control of the Rapid Support Forces in the west, and central and eastern Sudan, where the areas controlled by the Sudanese army are concentrated.

The city is home to a Sudanese army infantry division, a military air base, a major oil pipeline, as well as the largest global market for gum arabic.

According to Sudanese affairs researcher Kholoud Khair, the control of El Obeid goes beyond the military dimension to directly relates to "power, land, and money," as its fall paves the way for the RSF's march towards the capital.

Economically, El Obeid is home to the vital infrastructure of the main oil pipeline from South Sudan to the port of Port Sudan, a vital financial artery for the country. The city is also the world's premier hub for the trade of gum arabic, a strategic commodity that has not been included in international sanctions due to its importance in the global food and pharmaceutical industries. Thus, the battle there is a battle of mutual economic strangulation.

From a humanitarian perspective, UN warnings against a repeat of the "El Fasher scenario" are based on terrifying figures, with estimates that more than 6,000 people were killed in the first three days of El Fasher's fall after an 18-month siege. Despite the absence of a direct ethnic dimension in Al-Obeid, the economic blockade, the 300% rise in commodity prices, and the doubling of drinking water prices, leave half a million civilians trapped under the buzz of the marches, unable to flee due to the high financial cost or lack of safe passages, making the city a predisposing ground for a humanitarian catastrophe described as "silent famine and the expected mass atrocities."