Oil prices rose in early trading on Friday, June 18, after recent statements by US Vice President J.D. Vance on Israel brought some of the political risk premium back to the market, as traders monitor the resilience of the interim agreement between the United States and Iran and the return of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude rises to over $80 per barrel
Brent crude futures rose 0.55% to $80.29 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.75% to $77.94 per barrel;
The morning rally followed a volatile session on Thursday, with Brent crude ending 0.38% higher at $79.85, while U.S. crude closed 0.25% lower at $76.60 a barrel.
International Estimates
According to a report published by Reuters, the financial group "Goldman Sachs" estimated that the return of oil exports in the Persian Gulf region to pre-war levels could be achieved by the end of next July, with overall crude production recovering by October this year.
This gradual return would require an increase of about 13 million barrels per day in flows through the Strait of Hormuz to 70 percent of pre-conflict levels, making the price trajectory contingent on producers' ability to stabilize supply.
In a research note, BNP Paribas ruled out a return to pre-war levels where Brent prices ranged between $60 and $70 per barrel in the first two months of the year before the outbreak of the Iran war, saying that the $75 per barrel level is likely to be a stable and solid ground for prices in the foreseeable future due to existing supply losses and increased global demand.
Citibank also predicted that oil prices will fall over the next six to 12 months, reaching between $60 and $65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027, based its analysis on the hypothesis that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will return to full normalcy after the interim agreement comes into effect and the United States lifts the naval blockade imposed on Iran.
A report published by PetroChina's research unit confirmed that China, which ranks as the world's second-largest oil consumer, could see a 4.9% decline in oil consumption during 2026 to reach 753 million tonnes, attributing this decline to the increasing structural shift towards new and alternative energy sources along with high price pressures.
Metal Markets
Gold and precious metals prices fell in spot and futures trading, heading for a third straight weekly loss, weighed down by the continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has stabilized near a one-year high, and by signals of monetary tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has reduced the yellow metal's appeal to buyers of other currencies and increased pressure on non-yielding assets.
Spot gold fell to $4,139.62 an ounce, and U.S. futures fell 2% to $4,160.82 an ounce compared to earlier trading levels, in the same protectionist direction.
Spot silver fell to $64.06 an ounce (futures fell 3.31%), spot platinum fell to $1661.03 and palladium to $1241 an ounce as war risk pricing in commodity markets changed.
According to European economic sources, the current wave of volatility in the global commodity and minerals markets in June 2026 reflects the sharp contradiction between geopolitical indicators on the ground and macromonetary policies; on the one hand, the diplomatic caution associated with the interim US-Iran agreement, and the statements of US officials on Israel's security, contribute to keeping the "embargo risk bonus" active in oil contracts for fear of any logistical disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a vital part of global supplies passes.
On the other hand, the continued tightening of the US Federal Reserve and its strong dollar is leading to the rein of precious metals, especially gold, putting investors in front of a complex equation between a barrel of oil supported by tensions and a safe haven pressured by a high interest rate, while waiting for the map of Chinese consumption, which is beginning to be structurally affected by the transition to clean energy, is clear.