A senior official in Iraq's oil ministry said Baghdad would have to consider all options if it did not get a significant increase in its quota within OPEC.

The source added in shocking statements published on Thursday (June 25th) that Iraq is facing a severe financial crisis caused by the Iran war and the decline in exports, making raising the quota "an urgent necessity".

According to reliable sources , Iraqi officials are considering the idea of withdrawing from OPEC, although the current plan remains to continue within the organization while seeking a larger production quota, with Oil Ministry spokesman Salem al-Rikabi stressing that Iraq will "make a decisive decision on whether to stay or leave" if its demands are not met.

The government of Ali Faleh al-Zaidi has previously stressed that Iraq cannot remain constrained by a quota that does not reflect its population size and production capacity, and this situation comes in light of unprecedented economic pressures after the military unrest and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Iraq's exports for months, causing an export gap that exceeded 350 million barrels and losses estimated at about $37.7 billion.

A cautious Saudi response behind closed doors

No official comment has been issued by the Saudi Ministry of Energy so far, as part of a consistent Saudi policy of avoiding a public response to media leaks before discussing them within the closed OPEC frameworks, in order to maintain market stability.

Informed sources said that Riyadh began direct and unannounced contacts with the government of Ali Faleh al-Zaidi in Baghdad, after Iraqi officials conveyed a clear message that their production quota file should be dealt with "with the utmost seriousness," and that Saudi Arabia, according to these leaks, is working to absorb Iraqi anger and prevent any unilateral step that may threaten the unity of the cartel.

Riyadh bases its position on the comprehensive technical review conducted by the OPEC alliance through independent consulting firms to determine the real production capacities of each country, a review that will not be completed before the end of 2026, provided that its results will be applied in the 2027 quotas, a timetable that Baghdad, according to Iraqi sources, sees as very far away in light of its financial crisis resulting from Iran's war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iraqi threat is seen as a serious test of OPEC's cohesion, especially since Iraq is the organization's second-largest producer and one of its founders since its inception in Baghdad in 1960, and comes just weeks after the UAE's withdrawal, increasing pressure on the cartel at a sensitive moment for global energy markets.

UAE shocks OPEC, OPEC+ and OPEC

The UAE's decision to formally withdraw from OPEC, the OPEC+ alliance, and the OPEC came into effect on May 1, 2026, after 59 years of membership since its accession in 1967.

Abu Dhabi's statements at the time confirmed that the move is in line with the country's long-term economic and strategic vision, and with the ongoing transformations in the national energy sector, stressing that the withdrawal aims to accelerate investment in local energy production, in light of ADNOC's efforts to raise production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, a goal that was hampered by quota restrictions within OPEC.

Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Al Jaber described the decision as "sovereign and based on the national interest", while Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei explained that the move came after a comprehensive review of current and future production capacities, claiming that the UAE chose a timing that reduces the impact of the withdrawal on the rest of the members, while stressing its continued role as a responsible and reliable producer in global energy markets.

Russia adheres to OPEC unity

Russia has dealt with Iraqi threats to revise quotas or withdraw from OPEC+ with a clear strategic perspective based on preventing the alliance's disintegration at all costs, given its heavy reliance on the stability of oil prices to finance its budget.

The Kremlin has previously warned that the exit of a country the size of Iraq could lead to the collapse of the supply control system and open the door to a large-scale price war, stressing that maintaining the unity of OPEC+ is an absolute necessity, especially after the UAE's withdrawal

Despite its adherence to the coalition, Russia is showing technical flexibility towards Baghdad, as it supports granting Iraq more space in light of the repercussions of Iran's war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, considering that raising the quota "on paper" will not harm the market at the moment due to the actual disruption of Iraqi exports.

Moscow also continues to coordinate with Iraq and Saudi Arabia on recent voluntary increases, but links any substantial adjustment in quotas to the results of the review of production capacities to be adopted in 2027, calling on Baghdad to be patient to collectively pass the critical phase.