Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for strong weekly gains driven by renewed international concerns about the disruption of strategic energy supplies from the Middle East, following renewed military confrontations and counterstrikes between the United States and Iran that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose 19 cents to trade at $76.49 a barrel, recording an overall weekly gain of about 6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by the same value to $72.27 a barrel, posting a weekly gain of about 5%. Vandana Hari, founder of market analysis firm Vandana Hari, reported that prices have retreated relatively from the mid-week peak, but the geopolitical risk premium remains high with normal transit traffic through the strait almost completely halted.

Progressive recovery of navigation traffic

In the field of maritime navigation, ship tracking data quoted by Reuters showed that LNG tankers have gradually resumed their transit through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days despite the continuing critical state of military tensions, as a number of QatarEnergy tankers have been monitored for their entry. For their part, Japanese authorities announced that 22 Tokyo-linked ships, including 6 crude oil tankers, have left the waters of the Arabian Gulf through the strait since July 7, while only 4 ships remained in the area.

The move followed new security assessments by global shipping companies following Iranian attacks on commercial ships and US counterstrikes, with some tankers resorting to changing routes and taking precautionary measures to ensure the safety of shipments.

Gold Declines and Inflation Fears

In the precious metals markets, gold prices were relatively stable near $4,122 an ounce, but were still on track for a weekly loss of 1.4%.

This decline is due to the escalating economic expectations that higher oil prices will fuel inflation rates, which may push the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates at the next meeting of the 9th month, as the FedWatch Futures Summary tool showed an increase in the probability of an interest rate hike to 63% compared to 54% 1 week ago.

HSBC lowered its forecast for the average price of gold in 2026 and 2027 due to the strength of the dollar and tightening monetary policy, expecting an average of $4,560 per ounce for 2026 and $4,925 for 2027. Similarly, silver rose 0.6% to $60.34, platinum climbed 1.4% to $1632.16, and palladium climbed 1.6% to $1267.71, but metals 3 headed for weekly total losses.

Industrial Metal Performance

On the industrial metals front, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange for 3 months rose by 0.29% to reach $13528 per metric tonne, recording a weekly gain of about 1.2%, supported by the decline of the dollar index for 3 consecutive sessions and the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, in which he downplayed the direct impact of the Middle East crisis on long-term inflation.

For its part, aluminum recorded its best weekly performance since the last 4 with gains of more than 4%, benefiting from the decline in global inventories on the London Stock Exchange to their lowest levels since 2022, and concerns about supply shortages from the Middle East, which contributes about 9% of the world's smelting capacity, while zinc, lead, nickel and tin recorded mixed gains on the London and Shanghai stock exchanges (where copper in Shanghai rose 1.61% to 103.95 yuan or $15334.8, zinc 1.32%, nickel 1.13%, and tin 2.38%, lead 0.03% after fire broke out at 1 of South Korea's major smelters.