Recent data from Germany's Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) has revealed the beginning of a whole new phase in German asylum policy, one characterized by rigor and an impulse to reshape the legal landscape for Syrian refugees.

According to the data, published by Der Spiegel magazine, in just one year, the rate of withdrawal of protection from Syrians under review jumped from a marginal level of 4% in 2025 to 17% in 2026, before peaking in May exceeding 30% of the files studied, the highest rate recorded since the start of the expanded audits.

The data revealed that in 2025, only 659 Syrians out of 17,767 reviews were withdrawn, while in 2026, almost one in every 6 people under scrutiny was withdrawn, before the percentage rose sharply last May to exceed 30%, noting that the average monthly review is 1,404 files for Syrians, which reflects the amount of administrative and legal pressure being applied to this file.

The Federal Office justified the jump by focusing on the files of people who have committed crimes or misdemeanours within Germany, a category from which protection is easily withdrawn, but the BAMF is keen to emphasize that the overall impact remains relatively limited, given that there are around 500,000 Syrians with protected status in the country, which means that the measures do not affect the large mass of settled refugees.

Harsh repercussions and a fate hanging on the brink of deportation

Der Spiegel believes that the decision to withdraw the protection status puts the refugee in front of a very fragile legal and social reality, as his status immediately turns into temporary tolerance (Duldung), which is like a suspended stay without guarantees, which allows for survival but does not provide security or stability, and keeps the owner in the circle of possible deportation at any moment.

With the fall of protection, a person is deprived of the benefits of full social welfare that used to be a basic safety net for him and his family, and he is subject to severe restrictions on work permits, which in practice means freezing his ability to build a career or maintain a stable source of income, and a state of social paralysis begins, as integration opportunities are disrupted, the possibility of family stability is reduced, and life becomes a series of anxious expectations.

This fragile legal situation opens the door to actual deportations to areas classified as "safe" if Berlin reaches new understandings with the countries of destination, and thus the refugee finds himself between a residence without rights, an uncertain legal future, and the possibility of forced return to a country that many still consider unstable.

German human rights organizations raise their voices

Human rights warnings in Germany continue to escalate as the measures to withdraw protection from Syrian refugees escalate, as the concerned organizations – led by Pro Azel – believe that what is happening is no longer just administrative tightening, but a clear shift towards politicizing the asylum file and turning it into an arena of numbers and percentages used to calm right-wing currents and create political impressions rather than humanitarian.

These organizations assert that the recent decisions are being taken at an accelerated pace that does not allow for any accurate individual examination of cases, and that the refugee is now treated as a figure in a statistical table, rather than as a human being with his own circumstances, fears and profile.

The organizations go further, arguing that the government relies on unrealistic security assessments of the situation in Syria, and classifies areas as "safe" even though the realities on the ground remain volatile and volatile, making any potential relocation a clear violation of the principle of non-coercive non-response.

The organizations warn that these policies are not only about withdrawing protection, but also creating a new social reality within Germany, one that pushes thousands of refugees into temporary tolerance (Duldung), a fragile legal status that gives its holder no stability, deprives him of full employment, integration and education, and puts him in a gray area between staying and leaving.

Unprecedented voluntary return

Data from the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (FOM) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) revealed that more than 12,450 Syrians left voluntarily from the beginning of 2026 to the end of June, a huge jump from 2025, which saw only 1,244 cases throughout the year.

The data pointed out that this increase is not limited to departures through official programs, as humanitarian organizations estimate that about 8,000 additional unrecorded departures were made through self-travel by land or air, without any government support.

The data revealed that the motivations for leaving vary according to the legal status of each group, explaining that almost a quarter of returnees with stable residency holders chose to return out of family ties or a desire to contribute to reconstruction during the transitional period in Syria.

The largest group, 45% of Duldung, preferred to leave to benefit from return rewards rather than face the specter of forced deportation, which is becoming more and more real, while 30% made the decision to return immediately after the start of the process of withdrawing protection from their files, realizing that staying is no longer a safe or stable option.